Embodied Carbon One-for-One Material Substitution Market Characterization

Addressing embodied carbon in the built environment is critical given that embodied carbon today represents 11 percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Although embodied carbon is a fraction of building related emissions today, it is projected to increase to as much as 50 percent of GHG from buildings as operational carbon is mitigated through energy efficiency (EE) and building decarbonization (BD) programs. Addressing embodied carbon is necessary to achieve California’s 2030 goal of a 40 percent GHG reduction below 1990 levels and 2045 goal of carbon neutrality. While embodied carbon policy action has been initiated (e.g., CALGreen, Buy Clean California, Senate Bill 596, Assembly Bill 2446, and Assembly Bill 43), embodied carbon remains largely adjacent to, but disconnected from, EE and BD programs.  To better understand embodied carbon market dynamics in California, this market study attempts to document whether market activities for low-embodied carbon materials exist, if GHG reductions through material substitution could occur with low-to-no cost interventions, and to identify what the key barriers and market solutions are for reducing embodied carbon in California. Further, the study aims to highlight future policy and program considerations that may enable harmonization of embodied carbon and EE programmatic structures. The project team found that while low-embodied carbon is growing as a relevant goal for corporations, overall awareness of embodied carbon remains low. Knowledge of key low-embodied carbon tools and approaches such as environmental product declarations (EPDs) and material substitution are not yet widely understood or utilized. There is increasing consideration in codes and standards and policies. Embodied carbon can be a complementary program pathway to current EE and BD programs.