Harvesting Mid-size Industrial BRO Savings

California’s industrial energy efficiency programs offer no cost-effective, meter-based savings pathway for midsize process-load facilities outside of Strategic Energy Management (SEM) programs, leaving a significant segment of the manufacturing sector underserved despite its contribution to ratepayer-funded efficiency goals. Current CPUC regulations permit Normalized Metered Energy Consumption (NMEC) only for SEM participants, commercial buildings, and industrial sites with commercial-like building loads, excluding the broader base of small and midsize manufacturers whose process loads could benefit from behavioral, retro-commissioning, and operational (BRO) savings. This project tested whether site-level NMEC regression modeling can reliably measure BRO savings at three midsize food-processing facilities, developing baseline energy models from utility interval data, weather data, and production records, and pursuing retro-commissioning-identified measures over an approximately 24-month field demonstration. Two of the three baseline models met or exceeded ASHRAE Guideline 14 fitness thresholds (R² of 91 percent and 99 percent), confirming NMEC’s statistical viability for this customer segment. However, only one site produced a verified savings result, approximately 2.2 percent of consumption, with a Fractional Savings Uncertainty of 70 percent at the CPUC’s 90 percent confidence standard, exceeding the NMEC Rulebook’s threshold, though within the 68 percent confidence level already accepted within SEM. These findings indicate that modeling is not the barrier to adoption; the constraint is operational, as facility staff frequently lack authority to approve changes independently, while a trusted vendor relationship may offer a SEM-like pathway to NMEC eligibility. Further research, structured around direct vendor engagement and utility-integrated data sharing, is recommended before this pathway can support statewide program adoption.